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Diffstat (limited to 'docs/cpta/methodology/trend_analysis.rst')
| -rw-r--r-- | docs/cpta/methodology/trend_analysis.rst | 52 |
1 files changed, 32 insertions, 20 deletions
diff --git a/docs/cpta/methodology/trend_analysis.rst b/docs/cpta/methodology/trend_analysis.rst index b98dbe3d37..5b9ebd352d 100644 --- a/docs/cpta/methodology/trend_analysis.rst +++ b/docs/cpta/methodology/trend_analysis.rst @@ -16,35 +16,47 @@ Trend Compliance .. _Trend_Compliance: -In the text below, "trend at time <t>", shorthand "Trend[t]" +Trend compliance metrics are targeted to provide an indication of trend +changes, and hint at their reliability. + +There is a difference between compliance metric names used in this document, +and column names used in :ref:`Dashboard` tables and Alerting emails. +In cases of low user confusion risk, column names are shortened, +e.g. Trend instead of Last Trend. +In cases of high user confusion risk, column names are prolonged, +e.g. Long-Term Change instead of Trend Change. +(This document refers to a generic "trend", +so the compliance metric name is prolonged to Last Trend to avoid confusion.) + +The definition of Reference for Trend Change is perhaps surprising. +It was chosen to allow both positive difference on progression +(if within last week), but also negative difference on progression +(if performance was even better somewhere between 3 months and 1 week ago). + +In the table below, "trend at time <t>", shorthand "trend[t]" means "the group average of the group the sample at time <t> belongs to". Here, time is usually given as "last" or last with an offset, e.g. "last - 1week". +Also, "runs[t]" is a shorthand for "number of samples in the group +the sample at time <t> belongs to". -Trend compliance metrics are targeted to provide an indication of trend -changes over a short-term (i.e. weekly) and a long-term (i.e. -quarterly), comparing the last group average Trend[last], to the one from week -ago, Trend[last - 1week] and to the maximum of trend values over last -quarter except last week, max(Trend[last - 3mths]..Trend[last - 1week]), -respectively. - -This results in following trend compliance calculations: - -+-------------------------+---------------------------------+-------------+-----------------------------------------------+ -| Trend Compliance Metric | Trend Change Formula | Value | Reference | -+=========================+=================================+=============+===============================================+ -| Short-Term Change | (Value - Reference) / Reference | Trend[last] | Trend[last - 1week] | -+-------------------------+---------------------------------+-------------+-----------------------------------------------+ -| Long-Term Change | (Value - Reference) / Reference | Trend[last] | max(Trend[last - 3mths]..Trend[last - 1week]) | -+-------------------------+---------------------------------+-------------+-----------------------------------------------+ +The definitions of compliance metrics: -These metrics are displayed in the Dashboard table. ++-------------------+-------------------+---------------------------------+-------------+-----------------------------------------------+ +| Compliance Metric | Legend Short Name | Formula | Value | Reference | ++===================+===================+=================================+=============+===============================================+ +| Last Trend | Trend | trend[last] | | | ++-------------------+-------------------+---------------------------------+-------------+-----------------------------------------------+ +| Number of runs | Runs | runs[last] | | | ++-------------------+-------------------+---------------------------------+-------------+-----------------------------------------------+ +| Trend Change | Long-Term Change | (Value - Reference) / Reference | trend[last] | max(trend[last - 3mths]..trend[last - 1week]) | ++-------------------+-------------------+---------------------------------+-------------+-----------------------------------------------+ Caveats ------- -Obviously, is result history is too short, the true Trend[t] value -may not by available, we use the earliest Trend available instead. +Obviously, if the result history is too short, the true Trend[t] value +may not by available. We use the earliest Trend available instead. The current implementaton does not track time of the samples, it counts runs instead. |